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Update: One thing I forgot to talk about is how this announcement will affect the chances that either the Fed or Congress will give the economy more help.
I don't think this will have much of an impact on the Fed's decision, they weren't likely to do much more before and, since this call is unlikely to be news to members of the FOMC, it won't have much impact on what they do.
The business-cycle dating committee met by phone on Sunday and came to the determination.
"In determining that a trough occurred in June 2009, the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity.
The decision is generally based upon the examination of four series, gross domestic product, income, employment, industrial production and wholesale-retail sales.
It's important to note that this is an attempt to identify the trough of the recovery.
Here is Jeremy's latest estimate using data through June 2010: Notice that although his estimates of the date of the end of the recession is very near where the NBER called it, there is a worrisome recent uptick in the estimates.Rather, the committee determined only that the recession ended and a recovery began in that month," the committee said in a statement.The 2007-2009 recession is the longest in the post-WWII period.It does not say we have recovered, only that we've turned the corner, and it doesn't say anything about how long it will take to reach full employment. An examination of recent data does reveal a "fishhook" shape, though the part of the hook with the barb is pretty short.So it's hard to quarrel with the date they assigned, particularly given how past recessions were dated.